Moondog,
Unfortunately, Greece is not similar to Argentina. If it was I would say this suggestion would be a real possibility. It still maybe.
From my casual observations, Argentina earns it foreign exchange from the export of products from faming, mining etc. To pay a foreign denominated debt the country needs to earn foreign exchange to make the interest and principal repayments. By Argentina devaluing its currency, its exports became more profitable. This increase in profitability would result in an expansion of those export sectors of the economy resulting in an increase in foreign exchnage earnings from exports. The key thing here was that they were alrady exporting goods prior to the devaluation, hence the devaluation never resulted in a fall in foreign exchange earnings initially and resulted in an increase in foreign exchnage earnings over time.
Similarly, the devaluation resulted in imports becoming more expensive which allowed Argintinian producers to get a greater share of the local market. This resulted in a lowering of foreign exchnage earnings been directed to the purchase of imports.
However, with Greece, a devaluation of the currency (say 50%) would result in an increase in its foreign debt (no different to Argentina). However, Greece, from what little I know, predominantly gets its foreign exchnage earnings from tourism. Unfortunately, although a devaluation might increase the volume of tourism, there is no guarantee it will increase the foreign exchnage earning from tourism. (For example to earn the same foreign exchnage earnings from tourism after a 50% devaluation, foreign tourism spending would need to increase 100%). Consequently, there is a risk that after the devaluation they might be earning less foreign exchnage earnings.
The effect of the devaluation on imports might be the same as in Argentina. I guess that depend on how essential those imports are and if there are any local producers that could get a boost in activity from the devaluation.
I believe that Greece could mimic the impacts of the devaluation by significantly increaseing consumption taxes which hit imports and use some of the increase in revenue to offset some of their taxes which might be incorportaed in any of their imports if any ie. use taxes to reduce the demand for imports and increase the demand for exports.
It is surprising that the EC has not proposed a package to help establish an industry base in Greece i.e. encourage German/French companies to establish some manufacturing capacity in Greece to help transform its economy.
Anyway a devaluation could work in the long run but may not solve the current situation.
Regards
SP
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