downtrend explained, page-21

5hareholder, let's be in neutral position rather than going too negative or too positive. Most of what you said in post are fact. Let me make up following points.

1. Don't know whether you realise it or not, this time management handle Botswana drilling in the very modest way, even you don't know it already started. I don't know why, but the drilling started as planed at end of August, news expected before year end.

2.Ferreira's mine life is ending in the middle or end of 2012 and the production will be replaced by Penumbra. But, as I said before, Penumbra/Ferreira area's coal quality is relatively good, It's highly likely Don is going to use the $20mil BBBEE fund to acquire the adjacent farmland or projects to extend Ferreira's mine life. Pretty sure they are looking around now and already had some idea.

3. High overhead. it's true and it does negatively impacts the share price. Even with this high overhead, refer back to my post, in the second half of 10-11, CCC made loss of only $7mil after the once-off items. As Vlak profit margin improved and CCC will own full 74% of Mashala, I do expect CCC is on the edge of break even. the future profitability largely depend on the Ferreira mine life extension and when DWK open pit can start.

4. DWK production. I do not expect DWK starts production at least until in the middle of 2013. Several reasons, Mining rights need to be renewed in the middle of 2012, full BFS will be finalised by then. Then CCC has to work on the rail siding decision making and negotiation with Transnet and RBCT for more allocation, followed by DWK financing. Lots of work need to be done on DWK. But after DWK, CCC will be in much better position in terms of cash flow, capital.

5. Vanmag, I sent email to JB about vanmag sale and he mentioned that PL in Joberg is looking after the vanmag sale and he is confident the sale will be finalised in Sept but largely depend on the third party to meet the timeframe. To me, "confident" means not so sure, don't expect too much in Sept.


There are also something you forgot to mention---CCLSA is nearly completing the full acquisition of Mashala, a significant improvement of company's cashflow. CCC is restructuring it's mining licenses, Botswana will be 100% fully owned by CCC without BEE shareholding. it's a complex transaction and everything in RSA takes a while. Have a look at CZA, almost one year after the announcement of Rio's coking coal project, the transaction has been finalised.

happy to discuss more, but don't make an U turn from extremely positive to extremely negative.Most of the negativity of your post are already factored in by the market. thinking about $30mil cash on the way, and cashflow positive business with MC of 90mil.....