Where do you get that figure Shaba? Conti have not finalised or drawn down any of the ABSA finance package yet. $15m of the ABSA package is an overdraft/working capital facility, $15m will be used to extinguish the EDF debt & $35m will go towards Penumbra, which should turn out to be a very profitable, long life mine.
Did you also factor in the incoming $10m VanMag proceeds, or the $20m soon to be received from SIOC-CDT (with a further $10m to be paid), plus the fact that CCL will soon hold 100% of Mashala, and collect 74% of the revenue from Ferreira (approx $11m pa @ $30 margins & 500ktpa export sales). From yesterday's announcement Vlakvarkfontein is producing an annualised free cash flow now of ZAR73m = approx $10m USD
"i reckon CCC is worth based on its last few quarters and loss of 47 million i fair vaule (sic) is 50 million IMO anything over that is expensive"
I find it amazing that you were invested in Conti when its market cap was over $300m, and it had still to start drilling in Botswana, commence construction at Penumbra, secure ABSA funding, tie up a deal with SIOC-CDT, complete its reserves & resources report (and increase resources & reserves at its upcoming projects significantly), move to acquire 100% of Mashala and continue to prove its operational efficiencies & profitability at both mines.
I'll back Madison Williams over your valuation (see 13/5/11 report page 25) any day Shaba:
Continental trades at a significant discount to other coal producing peers. Continental currently trades at 3.7x consensus earnings estimates for 2012 and at 1.7x on an EV/EBITDA basis. Our 2012 EPS estimate of A$0.01 and EBITDA of A$52.4 million imply a 2012 P/E multiple of 8.1x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.3x, versus other ASX-listed coal producers trading at 11.4x earnings and 6.3x EBITDA. As Continental shows an ability to meet timelines and ramp up production, we would expect the company to be rewarded with corresponding multiple expansion.
Recent M&A transaction confirm implied valuation. Recent M&A transactions highlight the value of Continental's asset base. On May 4, 2011 Optimum Coal (OPT SJ, ZAR 29.00, Not Rated) announced a deal to pay ZAR 420 million in cash for Umcebo Mining's two prospecting rights containing an in-situ coal resource of about 120 Mt of thermal coal. At the implied resource value of US$0.52/t, we calculate a resource-based per share value of CCC shares at A$0.08. As Continental unlocks the value of its extensive resource base and ramps up EBITDA, we would expect the share price to more clearly reflect the underlying value of the company's assets.
CCC Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
