company insight explains impressive financials, page-9

mtm100

No I am not kidding. REE became far too popular a resource play and prices (imo) got ahead of themselves so I exited ALK around $1.10 after promoting the stock from about the post Lehman 12c mark. As it turned out I should have held on a bit longer but I'm not always that good at picking tops and bottoms.

If you glance the LYC thread yep ... there are people suggesting 10 - 30 bags ........ maybe they are correct HOWEVER take notice of the snippet in the ALK ann. suggesting that supply will satisfy demand for light REEs when Lynas and Molycorp get up and going.

The differentiating aspect for ALK is the capacity to also produce heavy REE and it is here that I see potential for supernormal profit. Otherwise I would not have re entered the stock. Some of the latest Caloma results are also very good.

IMHO making money in this bear market is ATM not just about picking winners .... it's also about timing. I hold other oil, gas, gold and biotech plays, with intrinsic values of maybe one half to one tenth of where the likely NPV is likely to be. There is simply no money in this end of the market except for some speculative money that folows the headlines of the day. Most longer money is either in cash, dodgy fixed interest notes, overpriced residential real estate and big cap equities.

I agree with you on the issue of banks.

Also to note ..... as the timeline for geting started on the processing plant shrinks over the next few months, I suspect ALK's beta (SP correlation to the market) will shrink. This will be a good thing for longs who prefer not to chop in and out of stocks all the time.

cheers