The acceleration of the Blackwood seismic is very interesting.
It is known that Eni like to fast track their projects.
For the Tassie Shoal projects to work it would be better to build the methanol plant first so the CO2 offtake from LNG processing can be combined with the gas for Methanol production.
Is the seismic in preparation for a more vigorous drilling campaign Q2 2012? Perhaps there will be one firm drill (H3) with the option of two more (Heron 4 and Blackwood 2). Being 2Q 2012 we will be heading the right way out of the cyclone season!
Heron is still the key. Success at H3 will pave the way for the long awaited TS projects to get underway.
If all goes well there may be enough gas in P68 to get one of the Methanol plants (from Blackwood) and the TSLNG plant running (from Heron).
We know there is sufficient gas in Blackwood 1 for one Methanol plant. I would say that Eni would want better risk values before taking up their options.
In the end MEO will know for sure which way they will be heading in Bonaparte. What I mean is that they may not need to put pressure on the NT/P48 PPs when they renew 4Q 2012 if they have sufficient gas from their own permit.
If TS becomes a viable concern the owners of other stranded gas fields in the area may be falling over themselves to sell their gas.
Eni and MEO are keeping their cards close to their chest but 2012, in Bonaparte alone, looks to be very active indeed.
A lot of ifs, I know, but there is no certainty when investing in these high risk stocks (as Orstock states). All we need is a few things to go our way for a change.
