It was a combination of things really. The slipping timelines (I remember back in February for instance, it was stated 2 wells would be drilled this year- and we're currently only half way through the first one) have always got me irritated, and we'd just had some more (at the time I sold). The macroeconomic outlook started to look worse, what with Greece and the banks (this wasn't the case so much in February), and while I don't use charts to tell me when to invest or not- it did (and still does) look bad. Basically there was a trend of lower lows, and lower highs, and given there was not going to be any news for a few weeks I decided to conserve profits and see how the situation played out- I could have been wrong (and still could be wrong now), but I'd rather miss out on more profit, than incur losses. That's just the kinda guy I am. Which is why even though RRL is cheap at 9.5p, I'll still not buy in- because it will fall more on a non-commercial well. I'd rather buy back in at 16p with a successful oil strike, than I would buy in at 10p and gamble on a successful strike.
You see, the reason RRL went so high in the first place was because of the overall results of the helium survey. By that I mean, the survey showed the area as a whole to have the potential to generate a lot of value. But each individual target is not huge (120mmbls OIP equates to 16mmbls recoverage net to RRL using a 30% recovery rate, for instance)- so if it's going to take a long time to drill each one- and make no mistake- nothing in Range seems to happen quickly, the value is diminished somewhat because of the time value of money. Doesn't mean the area has less potential because it's taking a long time to do it, but investors are impatient and want to see quicker returns (as PL himself has noted in his video).
Further SP rises will be dependant upon speeding up the drilling process, and of course finding commercial oil. The RNS today was not a bad one, I did not think- but the drop was inevitable due to the delays and lack of more information. Range is 'cheap' today, but then again so are many, many other stocks which have been battered in the last few months- but what people are waiting for is a good indication of a 'bottom' to the markets before buying in- whether that be a change in macroeconomic outlook, or some solid good news.
Just some general comments on Range would be:
- The prospects for all the areas Range hold are good.
However:
- Whenever Peter Landau gives a timescale for something, double it. That's when it'll actually happen. 1 month means 2 months, 3 months means 6 months, and 6 months...well, that means 'far, far in the future'.
- All investors should do themselves a favour, and base their decisions on the facts that we know, rather than on bulletin board posts by members we do not know. Ignore absolutely everything posted claiming to have 'insider knowledge' when making your decision. By all means read the posts, but do not let anyone sway you by implying they 'know something'. I mean, how many got caught out today in London with all the posts on RUM (and elsewhere) and discussions of big flow rates? Investors only have themselves to blame for listening to people they don't know, but it happens time and time again.
Of course, if there's a solid argument that causes you to change your views, based on the facts that are avaliable, by all means reconsider your strategy. I did this when Stu255 started posting on iii. Having given what he was saying careful consideration, I found that he did have a point afterall, and altered my holding strategy accordingly. Nothing wrong with that, but no one should be basing any decision on the idea that a bulletin board poster has inside information.
RRS Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
