Fast-forward on HotCopper to mid-Feb 2012, four months, when the discussion will be all about the upgraded jorc due in 6 weeks.
Presuming that,
1. Along with necessary but positive infill stuff, some pretty impressive new drill results have been reported, and EM anomalies have been Big Winners. All part of the one massive deeper primary deposit as expected.
2. Site work has been directed entirely to Antas.
Also consider AVB cash flow.
Options exercised next April give extra 175m x 0.015 = $2.6m into kitty. Then four months later another $1m from Vale. (Then 12 months later maybe $30+m from Vale. )
Cash at start this quarter (July- Sept incl) $19.6 m. Projected outflow this past quarter $2.35m which should leave $17.25, plus $0.6m Vale = $17.85m at end Sept. 2011
OK, budgeting for same Admin $250,000 but reduced Drill/Assay/JORC-processing costs to say $1.2m from $2.1m, Quarterly outflow Next quarter (Oct - Dec) is $1.45m, or an Annualised rate of 4 x $1.45m = $5.8m.
So examining the period end-Sept 2011 to end-Sept 2012
$17.25m at start
Outflow = $5.8m
Inflow = $3.6m
NET Out is $2.2m
So in drawing up a suggested budget, Cash goes from $17.25m now to $15.05m in a year. A 13% drop... only!!! This is a BUDGET of course, a projection based on suggested spend levels so is an INDICATION.
To be talking about a PFS/DFS done by middle next year there must be a lot of confidence around in terms of getting Real Mining going on a big scale. The picture becomes clearer.
TP is not a geo. He is a practical guy who specialises in setting up mines, doing the real digging and seeing cash flow IN for a change!
So looking at the projected cash position in a year, using all known inputs , it is amazing. Little changed.
Sad about Serra Verde etc.... but it is all happening at Antas apparently. That is where the Value is and the Excitement. Defining what is there, and rocking the market with an unexpected JORC.
Will the SP still be 7c in mid-Feb ???!
haha I make no predictions ever on SP, it is wacky, but the anticipation alone should have it in a different league to now I believe. Just weighing the numbers and probabilities. Really it all depends on the revised JORC. And the gradual climb in SP leading up to the big announcement.
The adrenalin flowing....
Maybe a general UP trend that over-shoots to silly prices in the 20's and more, and then falls because it was not the 100million-billion resource that was whispered? Or perhaps it catches the market by surprise and SP roars UP! Who knows. haha
Either way at 7cents plus now??!... cash position is very secure for future moves. So when $$'s are needed to build mine, pick up extra tenements, no sweat.
It is the trend over the next 5 months, not the daily crowd rushes that will make $'s.
Better than a bet on the Melbourne Cup at least, one could say.
AVB Price at posting:
7.2¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
