give us a break, page-34

I certainly wouldn't count on Puntland being spudded. I've always maintained it wouldn't happen and that investors should focus on Georgia/Trinidad/Texas for long term results, and I've seen nothing to change my opinion. After believeing it would happen in 2010, I wised up and never believed it would be drilled after they missed that initial deadline. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me- that's the philisophy I apply to Puntland.

I thought Range were the operators as well, but the latest announcement suggests otherwise. I honestly don't know which is right, as I'm pretty sure PL has mentioned in the past Range were operators, not Strait.

Wouldn't read too much into every single word used in an announcement either. The main body of the text was plain and simple if one reads it from a neutral perspective- 'we've hit hard rock, and we are currently trying to determine whether it is volcanic rock that we can drill through to potentially find oil under it, or a granite basement in which case the well is a duster'.

One would have thought an almighty screwup would have to be made with the seismics to hit the basement at 1500m when TD was originally planned for 3000m, so from that one could have hope that what has been hit is not the basement- of course, even if it isn't the basement, that doesn't neccesarily mean there's commercial oil underneath it, just that more drilling with need to be done to find out. On the other hand, screwups are made in oil exploration. Neither us nor the company will know at this point.

With regards to limiting losses in future- here's something I once read, and it has rung true on many, many occasions in my time investing. It's just a theory that I personally support- it's not meant to be scientific, and feel free to disregard if you wish. However, the theory is:

"When the mood on the bulletin board turns sour, that is usually not a bad time to buy in. When a bulletin board is upbeat and happy, then is usually not a bad time to sell out".

Now you've got to factor that in alongside changing fundamentals and the economic climate, but the idea is based on the fact that if a bulletin board is happy- everyone is already 'fully loaded', and those who want to have bought in, already have. There is therefore little buying left to drive the price higher, hence it's a good time to sell. Alternatively, when a bulletin board is unhappy, those who wish to sell will have done so already, and so there is little left to drive the price lower.

It doesn't always work, and you can sometimes miss out on greater profits by following this religiously (which is why you must also match it up to company fundamentals and consider whether a rise is justified based on those- make no mistake, fundementals are more important than checking the modd of BB's- it just provides a good indicator, IMO)- for instance, on the way 'up' from 9p to 24p, if you sold out at 18p, when the mood was upbeat, you'd have missed out on 6p a share greater profits. However, remember that very few can correctly sell at the very top, and buy at the very bottom- but the important thing is your interpretation of the general trend is correct.

This isn't as good in times of heavy news (i.e. awaiting imminent drill results, where the content of news will sway the price far more), but is very useful, in my opinion, during quieter times.

It'll get interesting with Range pretty soon. I think current prices are fairly risk free providing the money doesn't run out and an investor can hold for 9 months or so, allowing Trinidad production to be ramped up. Short term however, it's high risk. Good news up/bad news down type scenario.