LB01 I largely agree (and ignore those 'stop thinking' comments - our brain and hard work are private investors main advantage over many of the instos).
I'd love a FMG 1:1 scrip t/o and I agree that it would likely be supported by Stokes. However I'm not sure FMG would be prepared to dilute down another 170m shares for only 150m in cash plus IV and bucklands. While IOH may feel they are worth $5 I'd imagine FMG have their own internal valuation would be around $10. While a 1:2 (FMG:IOH) offer may be rejected by Stokes, I wonder whether somewhere in the middle - say 1:1.50 - might not realistically be acceptable to both parties?
For IOH it realises a value of $3+ immediately & avoids CGT for shareholders who also retain upside exposure to Fe. For FMG a 1:1.5 ratio reduced dilution down to 115m odd shares and the 'look through' cost of IV and bucklands keeps the analysts etc happy at about 350m (assuming they or IOH could realise $50-100m for the magnetite).
IOH Price at posting:
$1.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
