re-birth of vdm group, page-3

I arrive at ~$40m based on the following factors.

* It generates about $10m EBITDA on a divisional basis pre corporate overhead
* They have given a party exclusivity without running a wider auction - any sensible board would only do this if they were quite certain in ther outcome and they thought it was a good price
* A business like this would typically trade for ~5-6x EBITDA but due to the capital intensive nature and wounded seller, it will probably get a discount

Weighing these factors up, I suspect the price will be around $40m EV (net cash to VMG will be after finance leases etc). I also think there is little risk of deal falling over as the Directors have made the ballsy call of granting erxclusivity and announcing to the market. They will look like complete muppets if they have stuffed this up.

Cheers