My last post on the Zoomba thread had some comments about resistance ahead contained this: "1255.2 is a level of the 87 low and.."
Obviously that's not right. 1255.2 is the 23.6% retracement level from the all time high to the '87 low. Those fibs haven't done amazing things but I thought it worth monitoring.
The 4/10 low was 56 cal day from 9/8 low and fitted in with the divisions of 90 day turns that the market had been keeping to. That day was like 5/8ths or the 61.8% fib in time for this block of 90 days and it worked well.
Next was 67.5 days at 3/4 of 90 days and that was either 15 or 16 October and those days were a Saturday and a Sunday so no real help there. Then 78.75 days or 7/8th of 90 days and that is this Thursday 27 October.
It might grind higher into that date for a high at calculated resistance, then fall into the low at 90 on 7.11.11, although a high at 90 would seem the more likely scenario. That grind higher though could be resolved to the upside and (based on the NDX chart which may pop up) then it exhausts into 90 for a high on about 7.11.11. That high would be around 1300 if that's how it played out, certainly couldn't see it being any less than that.
Another option is that the NDX has put in another lower high at the same level (its actually the 4th not the 3rd lower high at that level this year) and Friday was a high in the Dow and SP500 and we consolidate here with a retracement of 1/4 of the move up so far for a low around 1200 (23.6% is 1199.86) on Thursday and then rally hard from then to 90 days on 7/11/11. That scenario for me has some attraction, as the 30 min SP500 (here it is again) has had an upward tilting expanding movement last week. The expanding aspect has me titling toward some sort of retracement from here being possible.
A high that soon after the 4/10 low though doesn't really fit with history. It would be better if the high were about 60 days from 4/10 on around 3/12 or even 90 days from 4/10 which would be 2/1/12 and early January has a good track record for significant highs.
I want to see the high around 180 days from low too and 180 days from 16/6/11 low gives Sunday 13/12/11 so it could be Friday 11/12/11 high or Monday 14/12/11 to fit. Next would be 180 from 18/7/11 low and that's Thursday 14/1/12.
Worst case scenario is the 180 high was last Friday being 186 days from 18/4/11 low and the rally is over but that seems rather unlikely.
(20min delay)