interest rates, page-5

There is one instance I can find where they stalled for 17 months before increasing again [june 02-nov 03 ]
there is one instance of a decrease after 19 months [Dec 94-July 96 ]
Most of the other periods of reversal were changes after 6 months .
The point to the above is as we approach the 17-19 month period after the last increase we should look at a rate decrease [ guessing june to August 2012 ]
We are already over the 6 month time change that often happens but I wouldn't rule out a rate decrease in November 2011 either [ few weeks time] but would back a rate change to down in June to August 2012 ]
cheers




http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate.html

Cash Rate Target Effective Date Change in cash rate
Percentage points New cash rate target
Per cent
3 Nov 2010 +0.25 4.75
5 May 2010 +0.25 4.50
7 Apr 2010 +0.25 4.25
3 Mar 2010 +0.25 4.00
2 Dec 2009 +0.25 3.75
4 Nov 2009 +0.25 3.50
7 Oct 2009 +0.25 3.25
8 Apr 2009 -0.25 3.00
4 Feb 2009 -1.00 3.25
3 Dec 2008 -1.00 4.25
5 Nov 2008 -0.75 5.25
8 Oct 2008 -1.00 6.00
3 Sep 2008 -0.25 7.00
5 Mar 2008 +0.25 7.25
6 Feb 2008 +0.25 7.00
7 Nov 2007 +0.25 6.75
8 Aug 2007 +0.25 6.50
8 Nov 2006 +0.25 6.25
2 Aug 2006 +0.25 6.00
3 May 2006 +0.25 5.75
2 Mar 2005 +0.25 5.50
3 Dec 2003 +0.25 5.25
5 Nov 2003 +0.25 5.00
5 June 2002 +0.25 4.75
8 May 2002 +0.25 4.50
5 Dec 2001 -0.25 4.25
3 Oct 2001 -0.25 4.50
5 Sep 2001 -0.25 4.75
4 Apr 2001 -0.50 5.00
7 Mar 2001 -0.25 5.50
7 Feb 2001 -0.50 5.75
2 Aug 2000 +0.25 6.25
3 May 2000 +0.25 6.00
5 Apr 2000 +0.25 5.75
2 Feb 2000 +0.50 5.50
3 Nov 1999 +0.25 5.00
2 Dec 1998 -0.25 4.75
30 Jul 1997 -0.50 5.00
23 May 1997 -0.50 5.50
11 Dec 1996 -0.50 6.00
6 Nov 1996 -0.50 6.50
31 Jul 1996 -0.50 7.00
14 Dec 1994 +1.00 7.50
24 Oct 1994 +1.00 6.50
17 Aug 1994 +0.75 5.50
30 Jul 1993 -0.50 4.75
23 Mar 1993 -0.50 5.25
8 Jul 1992 -0.75 5.75
6 May 1992 -1.00 6.50
8 Jan 1992 -1.00 7.50
6 Nov 1991 -1.00 8.50
3 Sep 1991 -1.00 9.50
16 May 1991 -1.00 10.50
4 Apr 1991 -0.50 11.50
18 Dec 1990 -1.00 12.00
15 Oct 1990 -1.00 13.00
2 Aug 1990 -1.00 14.00
4 Apr 1990 -1.00 to -1.50 15.00 to 15.50
15 Feb 1990 -0.50 16.50 to 17.00
23 Jan 1990 -0.50 to -1.00 17.00 to 17.50
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