I haven't booked a flight as yet. I will let you know one way or the other.
Like many, I am tired of ESG. As an investor, I like to invest in 'known' value gaps. The difficulty has been over the last 18 months that there has been so much secrecy about reserve upgrades, flow rates and commercial progress that there were far more 'unknowns' than 'knowns'. Now that the reserves have come out via the SoA, we know why. And without the big reserves increase, the investment proposition isn't as compelling as it once was.
Even at this the 11th hour we have no idea why ESG continue to have dealings with the Japanese, for which there is no value reflected in the the current merger price. Again, we are left in the dark, and can only think that such expenditure is inappropriate at best. More guesswork.
People should go into this vote with their eyes open. Many feel that a NO VOTE will force Santos to pay more. I suspect the opposite. Whilst I recognise Santos will not walk away from ESG, IMO it is akin to a property being handing in at auction if it doesn't meet the reserve. Yes, the buyer still wants it. But the new price may be lower, not higher. And we still have the same 'agents' working for us. Does that inspire confidence?
If the NO VOTE gets up, we should expect a sharp price drop. Now if you are in for the long term and don't mind, fine. There will be another cap raising in the next 6-9 months if Santos do not return with another bid straight away.
The company continues to ring around to shareholders who haven't voted. That says to me that the result may still be in doubt and ESG are worried it might fall through.It may also back up what Hardmano says about ESG not having other options or interested parties.Again, we just don;t know and are investing in the dark. Now ESGSAG members think if it falls through they will get MORE. ESG Directors obviously seem concerned that if it doesn't go through they will get LESS.
My passion for ESG has gone. I don't feel compelled to convince people to VOTE one way or the other. Do what you think is best. However, do not be surprised if things could get worse rather than better, especially in the short term. That is ALWAYS a possibility, especially in a weak market.
I for one am tired of ESG and their management. And voting NO, and putting these guys back in to bat isn't something that really appeals to me. It may satisfy a desire to punish the Directors. That I get. But it means going back to the drawing board. I am just not sure that puts ESG in a strong position than they were in before. And for how much extra? 10 cents? There are less risky ways of making 10% in the market. db76 would have you believe that all he wants is 90 cents. All that risk for an extra 5 cents (6%)? That is madness, IMO.
UPSIDE potential vs DOWNSIDE risk. That is always the equation. But as we get to the vote, and if nothing happens to trump the existing deal, IMO, that equations starts to lurch towards the downside.
I may go to the meeting, but if I do, it will be for social reasons. If Nervous and Co. have done their work well, the price will drop sharply. And then holding large numbers of ESG shares will make me nervous!
Yaq
ESG Price at posting:
84.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
