I'm all one for caution and getting high probabilty safe entries. But I think we have to recognise why we are up here in the first place. Markets move on Supply and Demand, but also lack of supply and lack of demand.
If supply is real low, then the path of least resistance is up. The purpose of the Composite operator, if he is accumulating, is to take out the public, the hangers on, and they do that by buying on down bars (as Volt mentioned while news is real bad) and selling on upbars (while news is fantastic)- and we have a situation where there was a lot of buying going on as Markets started crashing in August - and we can call it short covering as some of it is, and its difficult when it moves sideways for a while to know whether they are accumulating or redistributing until it breaks properly one way or the other. But the last shakeout at our low really sucked the sellers out of the market and we have broken away from our major activity/volume areas on the daily at least. So while I think yes, we can retrace, even 50% from here to the low - but thats buying below us there, and a lot of it, too much just to discount out of hand and that means there has to be a payoff somewhere at higher prices. Martis's C wave may come, but I think we'll need to see some major distribution for that to happen, and that will start as the market goes UP - ie weakness will first appear on our upbars. Also, to offload the stock thats been accumulated lower down at the crash the Pros need the gen pop to jump back into the market, not just Mum and Dad's but the Clayton's professional like your superfunds and managed funds - And for that buying pressure to really cook for them they may have to take it all the way to or close to the April highs to conjole losers back into the market - cause all Casinos need losers to make it work. So I think if the market gives us some dips in the meantime above our former trading range - then that would be where we may find some real good medium to long term opportunities - depending on your style of investing or trading or if you just buy now and ride the trend or buy the dips its all down to our skill as traders/investors, but I think we need to run higher to generate the demand needed to offload what was accumulated lower down.
Nice charts all too, I do look at and appreciate them not just the fellow VSAers whose analysis I'm partial to (nice one Mitta)
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