I do not agree with GO that success at Surprise is already built into the SP. Since the 5 Aug ann. that a LOI had been signed with ADS for a rig to redrill Surprise the SP has actually gone down from around 7cps and during this period the SP has underperformed the XAO so the decline cannot be just attributed to general market conditions. IMO there is a neglible amount built into the SP for success at Surprise but no doubt failure will result in the usual market over reaction, especially in the current environment.
IMO if the redrill of Surprise is a success and on the assumption that the flow rate is good and the results confirm a find of 6mmbbls of recoverable oil then based on an IGV of say $10 per bbl this could add $60mm to CTP's MC or around 5cps.
Those more knowledgeable than me about CTP's other prospects and leads in the vicinity of Surprise may be able to comment on what a successful outcome may mean for the prospectivity of the other leads. In other words does success at Surprise increase the chances of success anywhere else in CTP's permits and might that impact significantly on the SP?
ANZ
CTP Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
