ade takeover news by bpt, page-17

goodaye gassed,
yep i calculate BPT are up to about 46% of ADE already.
and those purchases are unconditional.

i do hope I am being too cynical wrt the Chinese GSA - were that GSA to become unconditional in the hands of BPT, it would be worth a motza.

i am dubious about "white knights' for ICN, because our future I think is now more tied to the BPT board than the ICN board.

the saving grace for ICN is that we will be dragged along with Beach.

BPT clearly have a plan for 218 and 855. they are working thru that plan. ADE was one stone in the wall. ICN will certainly be another.

Beach HAS to deal with ICN - there is no doubt in my mind.

Beach has already stated they are already looking for big partners, and fielding enquiries.
this basin centred gas resource is world class by the sounds of it - and onshore.

so the big boys must be interested.

so the issue wrt BPT/ICN is not simply one of price imho. It is very much an operational one also.

as you quite rightly point out, in any development, ICN is going to need access to cash. form where? and beach will be concerned about that issue. whilst it may give beach an opportunity, it also must give them some concerns.

BPT plans certainly will include a farmin by major - and it is much simpler, and probably a heap more lucrative, if Beach can have clean 100% ownership of both permits.

AND THATS THE KICKER IMHO.

the ADE dynamics have changed, becuase Beach has moved another step along their plan of development.

any farmin by a major will be serious money - witness DLS and BG - i think offhand that deal was worth $150m, and DLS had done nothing of substance to prove up any unconventional resource. So any Beach selldown will be much higher value.
So the stakes are big - getting bigger.

this ADE has made ICN stake much more valuable, it has focussed attention now on ICN holding, and on ICN's weaker position.

unless ICN can pull something out of the hat, its looking like a sitting duck.

the only barrier is the holdings of RJ and board, and maybe the Chinese s/h.

but the other big s/h of ICN, plus all the small s/h, will be sweating on a decent offer from Beach.