the growth story of mhm, page-3

the current market cap is supported by Moolap operations, firsova can argue the point over that one, that's fine they have certainly missed the mark on that score thus far, but I choose to rely on management guidance of $8.6m when fully operational (no landfill overhang) plus recoveries have exceeded expectations.

On this basis the shares offer a "free" option over:

US growth
silica
other minerals projects

I am factoring in a lot of upside for US (and international) growth in the next 5 years.

Silica is by no means dead (far from it from what I gather), nevertheless I would treat it as a massive bonus if it comes to fruition. Ditto their other projects in Tassie.

First US plant is hugely significant. In the next 12 months this will be priced in along with future growth - the business model can be replicated again, and again, and again. North America then eventually Middle East and Europe, maybe Asia if IP can be protected adequately.

Assuming they have learned from Moolap I would expect better project management building the plant and improved process flows. No doubt the Moolap experience has been frustrating but in effect it's a pilot we can learn from when we scale up.

The first US plant has to be worth over $2 alone in present terms (extremely conservative), 200,000tpa minimum. When funded (any equity raising would only create a slight handbrake, all indications point to mostly debt however) and contracts irrevocably signed we are going to start seeing some of that potential factored in, if not beforehand.

I really can't see much downside risk from here if Moolap earnings meet expectations (admittedly, very belatedly). Get a free hit on all the upside at these levels. Have to like that risk/reward.