Hi Neusters. New to the thread. Was introduced to the stock by a good friend from the farm. I have spent considerable time studying up on reports, Bells and announcements and am convinced to buy a parcel for the bottom drawer. I was hoping to summarize my take on the company to see if it is in line with what is generally thought and hopefully get some opinions on some questions.
The main game NNZ-2566 - neuroprotective and modulatory properties used to negate the mechanisms that trigger cell death post trauma. - currently in phase II for mod-severe TBI. - Funded by US army to the tune of $23million - Oral NNZ-2556 being evaluated for mild TBI - Improved on initial drug Glypromate, being protease resistant, whilst showed to allow higher blood concentration levels with 4x longer half life. - Potential $2-$4billion market in USA alone
The Trial (intrepid 2566)
Phase II – fully funded to the tune of $23million.
I don’t understand, on this alone how the MC and SP can be where it is ?
This to me is no different to a ‘company’ paying an upfront fee of $23million dollars, with the only limitation being that the Army gets to use NNZ-2556 (you would think at cost).
Is this correct? They acquired nothing other than the right to use the drug themselves?
The bigger carrot is that from a layperson looking in, there is no way that the US army will build the base and not put the roof on it. If the trials are in anyway successful, considering they spend $3b a year in research, there is no way they are not forking out the rest (probably > $50m) for the phase III. It just wouldn’t make sense. This to me would be similar to another milestone payment, meaning Neuren in effect would have made a deal worth between $75m-$100m, with minimal impact on their market sales. Further more, at this stage it would be time for pharma licensing and the potential for upfronts of $100m-$150m+ royalties.
Am I reading this wrong? Apologies if I am.
Also, the work with oral 2566 for mild TBI, is there a more effective delivery system to avoid oral disadvantages (that’s one for my buddies)?
SP upside : I read that there is the possibility of an interim analysis after 100 pts. By my calculations if at May 2011 there was 30pts recruited, and by end 2012 their should be 260pts, then it equates to roughly 13 new patients a month, meaning the interim results may be evaluated within the next 2-4 months. Anything resembling positive results should cause a massive re-rating of the SP.
Q. Will these interim figures be made public?
Of slight concern for me is the testing procedure, although there are not too many alternatives. As objective as they try to make the GCS, it is still open to the subjectivity of the assessor and is only a measure at that point in time, irrespective of what they were 2 hours previous or 2 hours later. Maybe they are assessing the trend of the score over the 8 hours. On the positive side multiple scales are being used and even more importantly the EEG monitoring of seizure rate is massive, as finding statistically significant results on objectives measure is much easier as it is not influenced by subjectivity. The fact that the EEG findings may be able to be used as an endpoint is also comforting and that it can then correlate to positive outcomes by ‘proxy’ due to clinical proof that seizures worsen outcomes post TBI.
NNZ-2591
Motiva, also in phase II to treat stroke apathy, developed by Daiichi, to be completed by 2013.
Hamilton Therapuetics licensed and then Neuren acquired Hamilton for $4m in Neuren Shares.
What happened with Hamilton? Why did they opt to sell to Neuren instead of go it alone?
NNZ-2591 in pre-clinical trials for Parkinson’s fully funded by NH & MRC.
When are pre-clinical results expected for these tests?
Neuren Subsidiary – Perseis. I note that people are expecting results shortly regarding the invivo work with monoclonal antibodies in treating breast cancer Where is the reference showing that results are expected soon? I also note that Perseis intend on entering a license deal or collaboration based on these invivo studies.
Finally I see that Neuren has $10m in the bank with only a cash burn rate of $2.4m a year. On the down side there is over 1 billion shares on the register and Bells suggest that Neuren will need to raise another $20million, in effect increasing the register to 1.5-2b shares.
Q. Although this sounds a bit silly, why did management have to raise so much money at such a low price, when in effect they don’t need it now?
Could have had $5-6m in the coffers and raise more in 2 years, if needed at a much better share price.
Anyway, the story looks good enough for me to enter at these levels. I am strong about FA’s. Short termers will come and go, but I’m happy to look at 3-5 year investments that will help me retire early.
I also believe that there should be enough happening in the short term for re-rating, especially if the interim results of 2566 are released.
Being new, I may well have got things wrong. Hopefully people will correct me and answer some queries. I also understand if people can’t be bothered, but thanks anyway.
NEU Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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