In one way we are lucky this is governed by the UK takeover rules because Aus has no "put-up or shut-up" rule. Here they could string us a long forever. But under the UK rules they have to make an offer by 8 Dec or be banned from bidding for KAH for 6mths which would allow someone else (RIO?) to pounce. BTY 8 Dec would have been set by KAH so this might relate to the issuing of the ML.
IMO CGNPC will make their 243.55 pence per share offer on 8 Dec. The expectation of this should put a floor under the share price of KAH and EXT. This offer values EXT at approximately $8.95 per share. EXT might sit upward of 10% below this?
IMO KAH & EXT will keep the takeover friendly and wont object to the offer and the Namibian gov would welcome China. Once the offer is made, expect the sp to to sit around 5-10% above the offer price in anticipation of a competing offer or rejection of the offer by shareholders.
I think it is likely RIO or someone else will bid for KAH (and EXT). But as we all know nothing can be taken as 100% certain in the markets.
EXT Price at posting:
$7.90 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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