witnessing the start of a 5 to Disallowed., page-252

Hi Aces,

Nice summary

Funnily enough a friend asked my opinion at the begining of last week with NEU Vs ANP

Disclosure: I don't hold either

I do see the upside for both but what concerns me is that I believe ANP's rally has been orchestrated after last weeks AGM Presentation because they've been advising since October that the phaseI trial results are on track to be reported by end of this year so essentially there remains no change to the underlying fundamentals of the stock.

The market have been kept informed for when to expect the results and if this trial is a randomized, placebo controlled, double blind study as has been reported, then no person including the lead investigator or any of the directors will know the results before all testing is completed and data locked away for analysis... so my question is, what's changed since last Tuesday?

I personally think some might have misinterpreted information provided in the presentation such as the following examples:

"- Genzyme (Isis) Mipomersen – successful Phase III in high risk cholesterol patients

(NB: Mipomersen approval anticipated in 2012)

- In addition to Mipomersen and ATL1103, there are currently 7 liver targeting antisense drugs in clinical development and another 3 in pre-clinical development
___

Genzymes PhaseIII trial for Mipomersen uses a similar antisense technology to ANP's ATL1103 but to my understanding this has nothing to do with Antisense Therapuetics so why also did they highlight "Mipomersen approval anticipated in 2012?

What do 7 liver targeting antisense drugs have to do with Antisense Therapeutics?

ANP have in-licensed 3 antisense compounds from Isis with the most advanced now being their phaseI development program for ATL1103 after the Teva ATL1102 partnership was terminated last year. Why did Teva walk away if this development was so promising?

Neu have a larger number of developments in the pipeline of which two molecules are in advanced stages of Phase II clinical trials under FDA ind's which target very large markets with unmet need and absolutely no competition.

The are also developing antibodies for cancers including breast cancer in partnership with New Zealand Breast Cancer Research Trust through their subsidiary company, Perseis

More importantly and what I believe our market always fails to factor in with many promising undervalued bio specs is the partner funded costs associated with clinical studies which in Neu's case grants from both the US Army and NHMRC to the value of $23 million have been received to date - And this figure only covers the costs associated with running phaseII trials. When will Antisense move onto phaseII and where will they plan to raise these amount of funds from?

I think it's also important to remember that the average cost associated with successful drug development runs into the 100's of millions and of the 1000's of hopefuls only about 20-25 will be granted FDA/EMA approval each year.

The FDA hold the power to ultimately make or break companies in this industry but inho when the entire cost of drug development is being funded by the US Army and already have fast track designation facilitates established with the FDA the approval risk factor would have to be extremely low.

I do agree that RNA-based therapeutics hold much promise for the future of drug discovery and development and there are many exciting programs advancing in this area around the world today.

Confidentiality agreements in place to protect valuable IP and trade secrets for some of the most promising of them can make it difficult for finding the once in a lifetime opportunities imo - but it's for this reason that I have yet to invest in any companies named in this post.

A couple of developments which have caught my attention in this area of new drug discovery is a technology transfer collaboration between Reckitt and Benkiser who are sponsoring a Prof Steve Britland at the Bradford University in the UK and also Isis Pharmaceuticals last year established what they have labelled a "Preferred Strategic Partnership" with GlaxoSmithKline. Both are moving along at great speed but not saying very much in public ;)

GL for tomorrow - appears to be more fuel in this tank to take it higher but it won't last another week and I should also add that if this rally was being fuelled on any real news I'm very surprised the sp of Antisense #1 holder, Circadian (CIR) disguised under the names, Polychip Pharmaceuticals and Syngene hasn't even moved over the last week and still show a MC smaller than their bank balance - Crazy ;)