witnessing the start of a 5 to Disallowed., page-255

Hi abdm,

Good questions... probably been enough talk on NEU so will leave those ones alone. As mentioned i think they are good company but have not got the potential ANP has.

Your question what has changed since Tuesday and why has the share price run; IMO the penny has dropped...or the market has woken up. Last week’s AGM presentation was always going to take a few days to digest as that just seems to be the way with all of ANPs announcements. The market seems to have a delayed reaction to the facts for ANP. Another theory as to why we have run so hard could be if there is a potential partner trying to tie-in with ANP; perhaps word has gotten around that organisation and since leaked out into the market place. One thing is for sure any tie-in for ATL1103 will be worth a substantial amount of money.

The next one you sort of answered your own question with why they would highlight the Mipomersen approval;

“Mipomersen uses a similar antisense technology to ANP's ATL1103 “

So ATL1103 using similar antisense technology (meaning 2nd generation targeting the liver) offers commercial validation to ANP’s technology/drug. They did mentioned the other ISIS antisense drugs targeting the liver but for different diseases... this would suggest to me with so many in clinical development, and one having been approved, that they have ample R&D info accumulated and a lot of confidence that the rest will follow suit as the wrinkles have long since been ironed out!

Also your comment regarding statistical failures under FDA etc. Orphan drug status is a different (easier) can of worms... and with the first liver targeting antisense drug having just been approved and going to market, it is good to point out that this process will have been somewhat de-risked for ATL1103 also.

You may enjoy this free website “Biotech Due Diligence” if you haven’t checked it out already. They are pretty hard customers when it comes to researching bios, but do some good Q&A at the end of their articles. It will answer all you need to know regarding Mipomersen and just how excellent this antisense drug is on liver reduction etc.

They quote;

"The initial regulatory filings in the US and EU will result in approval, likely by mid-2012 and perhaps earlier based on SNY's projection that Kynamro (Mipomersen) will be launched by March 2012."

They think Genzyme may have over payed for the tie-in with $200 odd million in payments before the royalty.... but this goes to show just how much ATL1103 could get for with their tie-in given ATL1103’s target market is twice what Mipomersen’s originally was AND now they have commercial validation lol.

"In short, the sales and market potential of mipomersen was clearly overblown historically. And Genzyme may well have overpaid for the licensing rights. Neither of these points change the fact that this drug could offer a commercial validation of ISIS's second generation antisense pipeline and prodive meaningul revenues to Isis Pharmaceuticals."

"Based on the numbers, it is not hard to conceive that this drug could do over $500m in sales, without gaining expanded approval in the US for severe HeFH after completing the 12 month study. I do not believe that SNY will pursue any populations beyond that study without using a follow-on next generation ApoB antisense drug. Still, with the 40,000 US and EU population, plus additional patients in other countries, this could still be a $1b drug without doing an outcome study to gain wider patient access."

They will gain wider patent access and be doing well over $1b in sales P/A!


http://www.biotechduediligence.com/mipomersen-long-term-safety-and-efficacy.html



Game on!



DYOR, and Good Luck!