monti's forced agenda, page-24

Dopey, I mean removed from the EU as in asked to leave (the same way Greek bond holders were asked to take ‘voluntary’ haircuts:)

French banks are heavily exposed to Italian bonds so if credit markets become inaccessible for Italy (which should occur over coming weeks) then the ECB would be forced to become the lender of last resort and take on the market (a fight they could never win anyway given the declining trend in social mood). But the German parliament, under public pressure, are sure to challenge the ECB decision and win (according to its constitution).

Without German support the ECB would be severely restricted in its bond purchasing which would leave French banks exposed to taking more ‘voluntary’ haircuts on Italian debt. The French Govt would then be forced to bailout its biggest banks thereby losing its AAA credit rating and rendering the EFSF powerless. That’s when the debt contagion goes viral and to the very core of the EU.

Neither Roubini or I wish this upon Europe, or the world for that matter, but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen. I'm not being pessimistic when I said that "The EU is about to fall apart and there is little that anyone can do to prevent it". I was merely being a realist.