a gps thoughts on msb results

Mesoblasts trial results have been able now to be considered away from the noise that is the share market. After some analysts thought the results were less than stellar there was a move down of the share price. The other interpretation is that some decided to take profits on the news. Interestingly the price was down an amount but there were people ready to buy. Certainly the technicians would say the chart looks strong so from an impassive stance things look great.

From a medical viewpoint I felt there were three chief statistics to comment on.

Firstly 1/45 in the treated group died versus 3/15 over 22 months. The p value here was .02.

Secondly the overall risk of a major adverse cardiac event was reduced by 78% with p value of .011.

Also of importance there was a dose related response to heart failure with a p value of .015.

P values less than .05 are significant and the lower the better.

Having looked at it as an analyst, I feel a lot of brokers presumed there would be some miracle and were somewhat disappointed by these numbers. As a scientist however I believe th numbers are great.

Much much more importantly, when you consider it from a patient's perspective, here is a drug with no material side effects that will make significant difference to a life hanging by a thread. The treating physician I'm sure would be extremely happy to give that person a significantly improved chance of survival.