I did note from MD Kelaher's talk that the profit would fall by about 9% before abnormals (by only about 2% if abnormal profit on business revaluation is counted), but this was not highlighted (surprise), just the current projection quoted.
Doubling the 1/2 Yr projection does produce a fall, but it is about equal to the Dec 2010 1/2 yr profit, which in turn was up 25% on 2009.
I just can't see a reason for such a large fall (now 7% for the day). I suppose IFL is a dividend stock, paying out about 90% of profit. If the half year figure were to be repeated in the second half, dividends may fall. However, the company made a much higher second half profit in 2011, so can't see why it won't do this again, especially as there is a new advisory business on board.
Finally, I've just got into IOOF after thinking of it for some time. I've heard on the grapevine that Kelaher is a very smart operator - right on the ball. This prompted me to look further and make an initial investment.
I'm changing my sentiment to LTB.
IFL Price at posting:
$5.41 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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