Yeah valid point Dave, a hard default of Italy & Spain might change Merkel's mind, but I suspect she would only use this as a last resort. I get the feeling she's hoping for a freaking miracle and the Union not only stays together but gets stronger.
Regarding risk on, its a bit hard to say. I would think what happens in Europe is somewhat less important than what happens in the USA. Will the Fed do a QE3 at the same time as Europe is printing money to fix their problems?