In this general market environment / macro issues, your assessment may turn out to be right re: share price - if so it will be very frustrating watching the slow grind lower but very rewarding because I will be deploying cash and betting the farm at $0.80.
However your analysis is rather too simplistic on a number of levels.
1) most analysts valuing a "green/brown fields" project allocate a per ton in ground valuation based on M&I (not M)where there is a significantly higher inferred resource. In CLRs case it would be 77mt measured & indicated.
2) this resource is not a "stranded deposit" it is within throwing distance (ok a couple of throws) of the largest Coking Coal deposits in the land - likely a direct extension of them - and importantly the infrastructure that they utilise, road , rail , water etc etc.
3) your $1 pet tonne is a generic value that I have seen used but not universally across coal deposits - in the event that (and this is the risk that I see with CLR - not sufficiently proven yet)the resource is high grade Coking Coal as opposed to Thermal - $1 per ton??? - you are dreaming.
3)extrapolating the current drilling program results for 80% to completion may result in a further upgrade of M&I by circa 20mt - so within a few weeks we may have a M&I of around 100mt with a further inferred resource of circa 70mt.
4)Goonyella West drilling underway - at $0.80 per share the market does not recognise this undertaking of what could be a direct extension of BMAs resource - IF initial drilling shows an extension of this (forget $0.80 because $1.80 will be the new floor)
5) it is early days for CLR, they have delivered so far - the takeover talk may become reality but at this stage it is just hype irrespective of the data room established.
6) The project economics on proving up just the Grosvenor West resource to date (say 90mt of Meas/ Ind) based on existing infrastructure, shallow deposit etc etc are robust - if the project could be delivered / operational tomorrow - a NPV unrisked of $8+ can be demonstrated on this small area alone.
7) will the indians, neighbours or others really allow CLR to sink to $0.60- $0.80 and risk a bidding war - I dont think so. I am not calling a T/Over but such a strategic "bolt on" asset will be valued by the market as such.
8)The caveat on my assessment is that the deposit has to be proven high grade coke.
9) I note for completeness that your first post states you hold stock and your follow up suggests you dont hold stock, presumably you didnt sell in the few minutes between posts because it was a Saturday - perhaps an error on your first post?
10) thanks for your contrarian view, gives us something to think over, reassess our individual reasons for initially investing in CLR. That is healthy, I stay invested, continue to average down daily and will buy with my ears pinned back at $0.80
All the best
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