big chomp, page-50

When I spoke to TP some time ago I queried him on the copper at TN.

As I recall his attitude was that when TN was sold it would be complete with everything. No trying to work out who owns what deposits. No comebacks. Also AVB would NOT become an iron ore miner, full stop.

(Woody also quashed the idea of toll treating at last years AGM)

I think then, as now, it is a case of if you can sell TN for a darn good price like $40m, then you count your blessings ... grab the cash, and run... and put it to work. After all, getting TN in the first place was very lucky. A windfall.

Also the implausible scenario of Vale only proving-up a minimun Fe, and then stopping in the hope of trying to chisel a lower price from AVB I personally think is a nonsense. To pretend there isn't as much there as there obviously is, in order to somehow cheat AVB... is hardly becoming for a Mining Giant. No way.

If the deposit is magnetite Fe3O4 (70% Fe) in BIF, and the deposit can confidently be minimum-sized based on correlation of actual drilling and magnetic surveys then it should be worth vastly more than a mere $40m to Vale. If not, it isn't worth the trouble.

It all depends on timing. When Vale wants it. If it wants to mine TN concurrently with its neighbouring works, then going through the acquisition, planning, environment approvals, licence application all takes time. So the sooner it is commenced the better.

TP says (simonhhh post) "AVB is actively planning to shift from explorer status to developer status as quickly as possible". I know TP will not contemplate this unless he has the money to do it. He has said to me he wants development self-funded.

So why would AVB be Actively Planning something if it did not expect the cash soon that would allow such development ??? You draft plans in the expectation that cash is coming that will turn it into reality.. quickly. NOT in two years time.

The sudden announcement of this deal could be what sends the SP back to the teens. A sudden 30% - 40% SP rise. But when?? Answer : Any time. It is being kept VERY confidential.

So the sleeper/wildcard is this one I think, and not more good grades at AN... or more ground.

Also it could come as a Christmas present from Woody and the gang....hohoho.. we will see.

The JORC is fine, but then if it is trumpeted and expected, and talked up, the SP can rise gradually and then actually fall on the announcement! Who hasn't seen that sort of thing happen???

So I am hoping for a negotiated Trindade North deal in a present under my Christmas Tree... so AVB can really get cracking in 2012 and be re-rated accordingly.