"We are really betting on inflating away debt in Europe and USA, and continued economic expansion in China, while real interest rates stay negative"
that's only one scenario for holding gold loki, but i believe there are other reasons too. the bond market is not as safe as it used to be and there are less and less places for people to park their cash.
i believe the investment paradigm for the current age should be wealth preservation and protection of capital, ahead of profit seeking the best returns.
people will need to embrace a defensive style of investing because when you look at the bond market bubble, the real estate bubble (China, Australia among others), sovereign risk etc, it doesn't leave many places for people to invest and feel safe.
the irony is despite gold's volatility i still think it is the best of the bunch in a hardcore deflationary scenario, as people will run away from risk associated with assets and debt that don't stand alone. initially i believe gold would sell off to cover debts, but then function as a sanctuary.
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