wap's still tell the tale...

The highest VWAP since the run began was just 3.55...

Which is not all that far from the current price activity, especially given how far she has come since 0.7c.

Most would view falls to current levels as a modest correction on the back of distribution...and a swap from a majority of short-term ultra-speculative, risk-taking types, to a heavier weighting of those with a longer term view, less attracted to risk.

Might we suggest the stock appears to have consolidated its initial gains, at a level not that far from recent highs?

I say "initial run" for a reason, as I believe the re-rating of ANP is still in its infancy...from an investment point of view.

Players will come and go...on the back of which the threads will be less than genuine from time to time...meanwhile, those of us who see the value (which was the same at 0.6c as it is at 3.6c in my view), can keep communicating our views, with general consistency, and watch on in amusement as the ultr-temporaries do their thing.

The best thing to do is ignore them...as opposed to giving them a venue to push their agends (ie, by responding)...or of course, as investors we also have the choice to spend the day doing other things...quality things...and not screen gazing all day!

This sortof behaviour will break the resolve of most people...so why do it?

I think even Motors posted he would have been better off simply buying and holding, rather than pip-chasing on this one...kudos for the frank admission by the way.

Of all people, I love a trade...but not on every stock. Sometimes more money is made not trading...and I say this from experience.

Its about picking the right stocks.

When I look at the VWAP chart for ANP, I see a huge amount of work for relatively small gains...in other words, big risk (risk of a lock-out), for relatively small reward.

Maths of the swing trade

Since the recent VWAP high (3.55c), we have seen gradually declining VWAP's of 3.08, 2.78 and 2.70...and whilst this is not a bad swing for the traders (especially the few who would have lucked out getting the extreme intra-day margins), when we look more closely we notice the average price and volumes suggest not everyone will have a seat when the music stops.

In their favour, the traders had the EU debacle likely to tip a few out (long and short term), and the options conversion flooding extra liquidity into the market to the tune of 36m new shares...and of course the expected swap from moreof a risk taking to a risk-averse register...and then on top of all that, I suspect, some corporate argy-bargy in the market designed to help back-room negotiations.

Of course, they also had the forum "noise" to rely on for help...and possibly a few sympathetic "outside influences" happy to pitch in (sell recommednations, etc)...as we always see in such circumstances.

So the play was in...and fairly attractive I have to admit, from a traders perspective.

At surface value it appears a net VWAP exit at 3.55c (254m shares)...and a net VWAP re-entry at 2.9c (138m shares)...was successful with a gain of 6.5 pips.

But, when you remove stock bought on the sell-down by new long-termers (we can expect more of these now since the results for ATL1103 de-risked the stock to some extent), and we discount a few of the traders who jumped back in too early and possibly lost a point or two trading back out and in again...then in and out again...the net return for this significant collective effort, is not that far off 4 pips on average!

But lets assume 5 pips.

Sounds good...but is/was it?

On the big VWAP day (3.55c), some 254m shares changed hands...and since we have seen 138m shares change hands for a average VWAP of 2.9c...so the cycle is not yet complete, needing another 116m shares or so to change hands before the numbers are set.

If any of these trade higher than 2.9c, then we reduce the average pip gains quoted above.

Further...I can personally account for about 20m shares that either I, or my friends/family have bought (as mid/long-term investments), during this pull-back...so...that's 20m of a total of 138m that have traded below the 3.55c VWAP that were not available to the traders.

This leaves just 118m shares.

Assuming a few others bought "investment stock" during this pull-back (say another 60m shares all up), which is likely given the de-risking event (results for ATL1103)...then one might speculate that as few as 60m or so shares have actually managed to lock in a swing profit of say 5 pips...so far!

That's a collective profit of just $300,000 for the entire trading market who have managed to bag this swing so far!

Kind of puts things in perspective!

By the way, in my mind the prime motivation behind the extent of this sell-down has been one of corporate incentive...based on the results of ATL1103 and the desires of one or more groups to be a part of it all now...FROM CURRENT LEVELS!

Anyway...a fair bit of speculation here...but assuming I am not too far off the mark, then some 190m shares still need to change hands below the 3.55c VWAP level, for the swing-trade cycle to complete.

It might still happen...but I do not think so...and this scenario becomes more and more unlikely as time goes on and we get closer to the next re-rating level news event.

As can be seen in the VWAP chart (below), we are still well in bullish territory...as re-ratings go.

Lets be fair...not many stocks that go through genuine rerating scenarios do so overnight...they all go though various swings and roundabouts along the way...often floundering at times in spite of significant re-rating developments.

The marker can be a bit slow at times...lol

I remember when SSN first announced part of their Texas ground was to be sold off for $70m (memory?)...yet the entire market cap at the time was about $30m (or less...memory?)

So, here was a single payment of cash for part of an asset, worth more than twice the Company's market cap...yet the traders were happy to play the stock for pips at half this level???

lol

These things eventually sort themselves out...as they did with SSN...but it can be very frustrating for those who see the real value and must watch on as the market does a dumb-and-dumber.

It might be worth checking some of the postson SSN at the time...more or less the same as they have been in the last few days on ANP.

Invariably, there were those who felt the need to dismiss developments, and/or claim a collapse in price was due "at any minute"...or claimed the re-rating was not real and a product of "hype"..etc.

I see many market similarities between SSN and ANP.

Cheers!