Hi Brett,
I have tried to estimate CDU profitiability for the first 4 years at different copper prices as follows:-
CDU Profitiability
2013 2013 2013
Assumed Cu Price US$2.50 US$3.50 US$4
Output of ore 3,000 3,000 3,000
Grade in % cu equiv. 3 3 3
Contained Cu in KT 90 90 90
Million lbs 198.4 198.4 198.4
Gross Rev @ assumed price 496 694 992
Less costs at US$1/lb 198 198 198
Gross Profit before tax 298 496 794
Less company tax @ 30% 208 347 556
Profit per share 1.20 2.01 3.21
10 to 1 P/E Ratio A$12 A$20 A$32
The share value is very sensitive to different Cu price assumptions. I have assumed total costs at US$1 per lb including treatment and refining charges. Of course if the head grade is 4% rather than 3% the valuation would be one third higher than calculated.
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