what's next, page-17

In simple terms -

Share price is weak because:
- One of the biggest investors sold all their holdings in just a few days.

- Let's hope we won't see this fund manager offered any placements in TIS again.


Share price limited upside for now because:

- Management has done placements in the past at big discounts to current SP.
- Management has done placements only a few days after telling shareholders they are 'happy with their current cash position'.
- Management timelines slip

My opinion on timing of major SP upside:
- Money starts coming in from sales
- Management give some proper guidance on their cash flow, rather than surprising us with placements.

My opinion on this company:

- One of the easiest biotechs to understand.
- Good prodcut.
- Has secured major partners for marketing and distribution.
- Mix of good and bad management. Good for the guy who secured the distribution partners - Bad for the guy who times the share placements and maintains contact with brokers. He clearly doesn't know how the broking game is played. The truth is many companies write 80% of the content of the 'broker reports'. They are often like advertorials.
- I don't think a new broker report will put the share price up (it will help sentiment of current holders). What will put the price up is the broker getting on the phone and ringing their clients (the old fashioned way its done). People a little wary of share market at the moment.
- TIS Needs money in the medium term (but not sure how much) - thus making it hard to value.
- I think silly to sell now after so many hurdles complete.
The fund manager 'sold the announcement' on more than one occassion - which to me sounds like a trading strategy rather than an investment strategy.

If you want to see a biotech trainwreck, read the history of Chemeq. I don't see too many parallels here, but the board could do with strengthening particularly on the finance side if the company is to remain strong for 3-5 years.

My biggest worry is there's a takeover at a crap price, with the directors getting big payouts on their options or other remuneration that normal shareholders don't get to enjoy. (take a look at UMC takeover terms from a year or two ago to see an example of directors lining their pockets and not sharing it with shareholders).

Overall this is a bottom drawer stock in my view.