big news- dendreon spiked up over 40%, page-26

Latest research piece from Deutche Bank post the Dendreon announcement.


"DNDN just reported $82M in 4Q11 Provenge sales, AHEAD of Street consensus of ~$70M. Below is our take and updated thoughts post release from our call with management
Co seeing same-store growth for first time-

IN LINE WITHOUR DOC CHECKS.
Doc checks indicate that there has been an increase over the last 3 months in Provenge use/demand. Our doc checks have not been at small communities, but at the larger centers where reimbursement hasn't been an issue.
Dendreon confirmed it is seeing same store growth for the first time. As of end of 4Q11 the co had 615 sites that had infused the product or have their patients scheduled for the first Provenge regimen. This is UP from 525 sites
at the end of 3Q11.

Co is still guiding MODEST growth for 1Q12.
Mgmt said they want to caution investors against expecting more than 25-30% growth in next quarter or two. Growth should continue to come from NEW sites primarily.
Co still expecting an uptick of sales in 2Q/3Q12 after community centers get more comfortable treating more patients/mo.
It continues to expect a more robust uptick post comfort with reimbursement after centers treat 4-6 patients; we est this is likely around 2Q12/3Q12 timeframe.

Seasonality WAS seen in 4Q12. Therefore DB expects JANUARY number will be good.
Although the co is expecting modest growth 1Q over 4Q, we expect JAN number will be strong (this number will likely be given out on 4Q call in February).

CONCLUSION: MAINTAIN BUY - BIG RECOVERY NOT UNTIL 2H12E,
but expect near-term strength.
We believe stronger-than-expected 4Q11 sales provide some downside protection for Dendreon shares. At these levels, the stock is still reflecting LOW peak sales. We expect 2Q/3Q12 to be the greater catalyst for Dendreon
shares.

Maintain BUY, TP $20.