It's not possible to draw firm conclusions from it as you can't find out easily how much new shipping is launched each month - for instance, the big drop from 12,000 was caused as much by a glut of new shipping as a fall off in trade.
I've been following it for many years, though, as it does give some indications - I can't see there being a glut of new ships coming, and I just think it is confirmation that China is slowing quite rapidly.
