60% + national housing price crash example, page-12

  1. 10,494 Posts.
    The answer to your question will unfold once the property market resumes in Feb.

    It's the same reason why the banks have been quitely letting go staff in various parts of their businesses for more than 12 months (by letting go plenty of contractors as the first step).

    Now they must telegraph to the markets as well as share holders that the party is over with massive job losses in the works (this time it's official - in anticipation of the next AGM - dividend ??).

    Mortgage lending has sharply reduced (the debt that fuelled the bubble has dried up in both demand and supply side). It doesn't matter if 36% of all people in Oz have mortgages, it still constitute the lion share of all lending and ONLY source of serious profit and revenue. It also means bad debt will skyrocket as price WILL only fall (and fall precipitiously from hereon) once the paceof credit growth cannot be maintained.

    If the banks were lending 80% to businesses and 20% to properties (to mortgage stress victims) and (jittery property flippers), then it wou;dn't be so bad.

    When valuations plummet, the banks wil start to ration loans altogether to ring fence the bad debt which result in less credit and more price PLUNGE !

    Good Bye.
 
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