risk may have increase but so have rewards

A few questions/thoughts:

~ do we believe Graham Hart or the analysts?
~ EBIT on the BPC Herbs and Spices business in US was $55mill this year. When it nearly destroyed the Burns Philp company it was losing more that a million a week. Tom Deegan and Graham Hart turned this business around, at the time no one was willing to buy it.
~ Combined EBITDA of BPC & GMF between 600 & 700 million. Debt 3.5 to 4 times EDITDA
~ Risk profile of BPC is higher but the potential price appreciation is much greater
~ fully diluted shares of BPC is 2.45 billion approx. therefore market cap is about 1.2 billion after share price drop and when options exercised.
~ a leveraged buyout company saw value in GMF opportunity last year
~ GMF took years to implement SAP which caused many headaches, it now has overcome it teething problems which allows new management to keep a very close eye on day to day operations
~ over $2 billion cash offer means that all these investors that owned GMF have no exposure to it (if the bid is successful). If they want to have exposure they have to use the cheque they receive to buy BPC shares

What is the end result of all this? It seems to me that after the initial negative sentiment subsides BPC shares will rise.

Any thoughts and opinions appreciated.

noip - I hold some