great weeks ahead ???, page-2

This is my first post on Hot Copper or any chat site. I’ve been long on Lynas for some time and think it’s one of the best buying opportunities I’ve seen in years on a FA basis. But the share price hasn’t reacted as expected to the increasingly positive news over recent months, including all the indications that have progressively emerged that the POL will be approved. I’ve come to realise that LYC is full of large traders and I suspect manipulators, so I’ve had to start an education in TA to understand the games going on. This also includes tuning into discussion sites like HC for others’ perspectives and there has been some excellent posts here (Nightstalker, FunkyMonk63, Timmo69 and others), so thanks.

But even as a newbie could I be bold enough to make some observations from my readings so far:

1) Clearly everyone’s tired of the FA versus TA carry on and what method is best. I’ll take intelligent insights from anywhere. Hopefully that debate is now exhausted and moving out of the LYC threads and it should cut down a third of what we need to read through;
2) Likewise, be a bit disciplined and forget about the low-value banter, personal jibes and filler stuff. Just post your best thoughts that add value to the shared knowledge.

HC nevertheless is better than the other sites I have visited, some of which have degraded into quite useless chatter. I look forward to posting a few thoughts here myself along the way and hopefully I can make a worthwhile contribution.

BTW, approval of the POL is a certainty. If Malaysia wanted to reject it they would have done so by now, as it would have been the easiest political option for them. Instead we’ve seen the Malaysian’s progressively lay the political groundwork for the LAMP to be approved. The initial independent IAEA inspections in mid-2011, the release of a scientific report just before Xmas by government sponsored scientists to give further scientific cover, the current public display of the application to diffuse any last objections and then an approval on the eve of the Chinese New Year festival to blunt any media criticism. (Equivalent to our politicians releasing the week before Xmas!). The timing has also been coordinated with the completion of the LAMP (or maybe vice versa for conspiracy theorists??), no sooner, no later, all to best manage the political fallout from an approval. It’s inconceivable that a rejection will occur at this point.

However, I’m also certain than when everyone expects the share price to react a certain way it probably won’t, and that all the big traders and manipulators having fun with this stock are going to continue their games long after the POL is granted, irrespective of its increasing fundamental value.