true value???, page-3

Bone has made little to no progress since late 2009/early 2010 largely due to being unable to secure sufficient funding in the market. However a US CEO was appointed March 2011 to focus on this.

A summary of the company in Jan 2010 is as follows:

1) 15.5c share price, 97m shares on issue, 15m market cap.
2) per appendix 4c - hardly any cash
3) Pipeline: phase iib capthymone approval from FDA
phase iib capsitonin (osteoarthritis) approval from FDA
phase iii capsitonin (osteoporosis) approval from FDA

So basically ready to secure cash to fund the three trials and specifically the 12 month phase iii capsitonin trial before applying for "New Drug Application" with the FDA.


Since Jan 2010 they have raised small amounts of capital $400k and $177k but also engaged La jolla (September 2010) to assist with ongoing cash requirements.


A summary of the company 2 years later as of TODAY is as follows:

1) 1.3c share price, 145m shares on issue, 2m market cap.
2) per appendix 4c - hardly any cash
3) Pipeline: phase iib capthymone approval from FDA
phase iib capsitonin (osteoarthritis) approval from FDA
phase iii capsitonin (osteoporosis) approval from FDA

Hmm looks familiar hey.... So, except for the market cap, they are in the same position as they were in 2010, with no cash and needing to raise appropriate funding to continue the trials. Except now there is an opening in the market with the ceasing of the large Novartis/Emisphere trial, so you could argue they are in a better position than they were back then.

Guessing here, but if they secure enough funding to go ahead with their trials and dilute the register by say 33%, raising $1m at 2c (more likely imo to be a higher price and a lower %, but this is worst case) then I see no reason why the market cap of 15m from Dec 2009 can't be matched, albeit with a much higher no. shares on issue (approx 200m) so that would mean a price of 7.5c.

Short term- this will flounder although may drop when LaJolla dump (if they have not already), but may go up if/when they pump it. Although as in my previous posts, 2011 directors fees and other expenses up to about $1.5m were paid in shares at a value of 5c, but the market hasn't bitten onto this.

Confirmation of capital raising and ceasing of the LaJolla arrangement will be the big deal to watch out for.




Note: phases of drug approval are as follows:

1. Preclinical (animal) testing.
2. An investigational new drug application (IND) outlines what the sponsor of a new drug proposes for human testing in clinical trials.
3. Phase 1 studies (typically involve 20 to 80 people).
4. Phase 2 studies (typically involve a few dozen to about 300 people).
5. Phase 3 studies (typically involve several hundred to about 3,000 people).
6. Submission of an NDA is the formal step asking the FDA to consider a drug for marketing approval.