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Hi.

This is NOT meant as a gloating post. But this was my estimate on what this quarter's revenue would've been 1 month ago.

Average price per tonne = $137CFR62
Opex $40t (currently)
Bonnie Fines = CFR62
Royalties = 5.625%
10% discount HengHou Industries (Capex payment) ~ 50% of Production
Native Title and Marketing = 4.5%
Shipping = $8t
Company Tax = 30%

$137CFR62 minus frieght = $129
$129 minus HengHou discount = $122.55
$122.55 minus opex = $82.55
$82.55 minus royalties = $77.9
$77.9 minus native & marketing = $74.4
$74.4 minus Admin, Amort & Depreciation = $73.2
$73.2 plus interest = $75.8
$75.8 minus company tax = $53.06, back pocket profit per tonne (NPAT)
$53.06 times 350,000t (NIOJV: 50/50 BCI/FMG)
$18.571M clean profit for the quarter

Total BCI cash reserves should be around $35M by the end of H1 FY2012

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1634552&msgid=9397133

The real figure from BCI's quarterly came in at $35.6M

MY POINT. 99% of valuations on HC are way over the top and not realistic. I try to give HC readers my best estimate at that time. Because in the end, it's me who'll look silly if my estimate doesn't turn out to be correct. With that in mind, re-consider this valuation:


ASSUMPTIONS:

NIOJV - (FMG/BCI 50:50)
NIOJV - 6Mtpa CY13 (mid this year to the next)
BCI - 3,000,000tpa CY13
Bonnie fines - CFR62
Opex - $40t
Capex Repayment - BCI ~ $5Mpa (HengHou Industries)
Royalties - 5.625%
Marketing and native title - 4.5%
Shipping - $8t
Company Tax - 30%
Average Price for CFR62 for CY13 - $140t
MRRT - The MRRT is a #&#$@*& stupid way to tax someone. I'm refussing to put it into the calculations on principle alone. I'm not admitting defeat quite yet, I still haven't given up that it'll be knocked on the head by the WA state government if it goes to the high court. Adjust my calculations to suit if you wish.

CALCULATIONS:

$140t (CFR62) minus $8t (freight) = $132t
$132t minus $40t (opex) = $92t
$92t minus $5.175t (royalties) = $86.825t
$86.825t minus $3.9t (market & native) = $82.925t
$82.925t minus $1.3t (Admin, Amort & Depreciation) = $81.625t
$81.625t minus $1.6t (Capex Repay) = $80.025t
$80.025t plus $3.7t (Interest bearing on collective cash accumulated, incl. cash reserves) = $83.725t
$83.725t minus 30% (Company tax) = $58.6075t (NPAT)
$58.6075t times 3,000,000t = $175.8225M CY13 ~ BC IRON ONLY.

BCI ~ 104M shares fully diluted (Including HengHou options)

PE Ratio of 1 = M Cap $176M SP $1.70
PE Ratio of 2 = M Cap $352M SP $3.38
PE Ratio of 3 = M Cap $528M SP $5.08
PE Ratio of 4 = M Cap $704M SP $6.77
PE Ratio of 5 = M Cap $880M SP $8.46
PE Ratio of 6 = M Cap $1056M SP $10.15
PE Ratio of 7 = M Cap $1232M SP $11.85
PE Ratio of 8 = M Cap $1408M SP $13.54

***For entertainment purposes ONLY*** Please DYOR. Not meant as financial advice. ETC ETC ETC .....

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1640905&msgid=9437439