gjo201's repetitive strain injury monday, page-31

In Australia:

XJO -0.3%
Twenty Leaders -0.4%
50 Leaders -0.4%
Financials -0.4%
Materials -0.5%
Small Ordinaries -0.2%

Comment: A narrow range, inside day on very light volume. The market was down more on a lack of demand than on concerted selling. The top I called on Thursday (19/1/12) remains current. Whether it is a short term top or something of more significance will be known some time in the future.

Technical Comment on the ASX200:

The XJO finished at 4225.1. Sitting above the 15-Day MA and below the 150-Day Moving Average.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 83.2. Overbought. Below its signal line. Caution
RSI.9 is at 59.2. Above 50. Positive.
MACD Histogram. Marginally above Zero. Neutral. Negative divergence.
Caution.
MACD. Above Zero. Positive.
CCI.14: +103.8. Overbought. Negative divergence. Caution.

The indicators are flashing plenty of amber warning signs. The negative divergences suggest a down move is coming.

We still need a solid down day to confirm.

You can see from the above chart just how important the current level is. Since early May 2011, the major down trend line has proved to be be an impenetrable wall for the XJO. If it breaks to the upside, that would be very bullish.

At this stage, the probabilities lie to the downside.

But – the medium term trend is sideways, and the short term trend is undecided. A break below the low of Friday would turn the short term trend down.

Respect the trend.

Today's cryptic "fortune cookie" courtesy of TinyPic is: "Beats me". I guess that sums up reaction after today's indecision.

Redbacka