operational advisory 23/1, page-22

Another weeks worth of data will help clarify things a little. Seems inevitable that the oil cut will continue to increase dramatically for there is only so much frac fluid down there and when it is all recovered then there is only oil and any ground water. Seems that there is very little ground water so oil cut should be upward of 80% in coming weeks.

The above said it dosesn't autmatically follow that with the oil cut increasing from 30% to 90% that the oil production will increase form 130 BOPD to 390 BOPD. The thing to watch is the fluid production rate which signals how much resistance the well has to the vacuum created by the pump. Remembering that the well was producing of its own accord without a pump but the rate was slow due to the weight of the oil column and the limited fracturing of the rock around the well. Since the new pump has a fixed capacity in barrels of fluid per day terms the resistance can be seen in total fluid production going forward.

As the fluids start to flow little channels in the rock should open up a little and get larger thus creating less resistance and allowing fluids from further afield to flow towards the well. We need these little channels in the rock to increase in size which should happen now that the new pump is creating the required vaccum to suck the oil column up and thus allowing the fluids to flow toward the void, or low presure column. Watching the total fluid recovery will give us an indication of whether this process is occuring.

Its possible that we will see a short term decrease in fluid recovery followed by a rapid increase. The presure imbalance may sort itself out once the fractures around the well open a bit and its even possible that the pump becomes redundant. Not sure how often that happens though so not thinking its likely.

I will be quite surprised if we don't see a significant increase in oil production from here.

Either way this is a great result so far and its not a duster as some described it as recently. No idea what the sellers today were thinking. Can't believe they still had dreams of 1000 BOPD so how this can be anything but good news I don't know.