quick valuation exercise for ayn

So we've got a bit of angst in the other thread about what AYN is really worth. Amidst calls for $1.09 SPs, I thought we should find out what AYN is valued NOW. Let's keep emotion out of it - if you find anything wrong with my numbers or have better suggestions, please do let me know.

First we need to put down some parameters:

Price of Silver /oz (USD): 33.86
AUD/USD: 1.066
Current Silver Production /year (Moz): 1.75 (They're aiming for 1.5-2, so I've taken a figure in the middle).
Cash Cost /oz (AUD): 15 (Will have to look at the cashflow statements in more detail to come up with a more precise figure, so I've taken the number used by Bell potter/newspaper articles, etc)

P/E Ratio: 4 (Only five years mine life has been confirmed as of now.. that's what worries me. Hopefully they can expand to 7-10 using Mt Gunyan, etc without too much trouble - all eyes on the next ann!)

Note: I haven't taken into account any exploration upside, as they don't have the cash in hand right now to conduct aggressive exploration projects. It may be worth factoring it in later on.

Cash on hand = 1.5M

Annual cashflow = (33.86/1.066 -15)*1.75M = $29.336M
Market cap = 29.336M*4 = 118.845 (includes the cash on hand)
Dividing by the shares on issue, SP = 0.087.

Thoughts? Comments? If you're going to disagree, please do so whilst pointing out what you think is wrong and by suggesting an alternative value (with reasons). That'll help keep the discussion as constructive as possible.