Fair Value:
Including options which are likely to be exercised, I calculate MHM will have 135 million shares on issue.
To fund construction of the new plant - $25 million
$5 million current cash reserves
$3 million from operating cash flow
$1 million from government grant
$5 million from option exercise
$5 million through debt funding
$6 million through capital raising @ $0.80 - 7.5 million new shares
Total shares on issue forecast to be 142.5 million shares
Forecasting Profit:
Geelong - EBITDA of $8.5 million
No interest expense
Depreciation estimate - $1.5 million (currently $500,000 - but some extra equipment has been installed)
Therefore, EBIT = $7 mil, tax at 30%, NPAT = $4.9 million
USA Plant 1 - EBITDA of $25 million
Interest expense - $500,000
Depreciation - $3,500,000
EBIT = $21 million, tax at 30%, NPAT = $14.7 million
Combined NPAT = $19.6 million
Rough 'Fair Value' calculation
PE range 5 - 10 (depending on general investor sentiment)
Price range = $0.69 - $1.38
Note - This is my opinion only regarding an appropriate PE range, taking into account the business risk factors (unproven profitability etc.) and timeframe until full profitability (say 2 year till full commissioning, then 12 additional months until full capacity - 3 years).
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Last
46.0¢ |
Change
0.015(3.37%) |
Mkt cap ! $194.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
45.0¢ | 46.5¢ | 44.5¢ | $580.6K | 1.274M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 11672 | 45.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
46.5¢ | 16173 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 11672 | 0.455 |
5 | 75758 | 0.450 |
1 | 20000 | 0.440 |
1 | 10000 | 0.435 |
1 | 1550 | 0.430 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.465 | 16173 | 1 |
0.470 | 80000 | 1 |
0.475 | 50000 | 1 |
0.480 | 117467 | 3 |
0.485 | 102970 | 2 |
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