LYC 1.15% $7.71 lynas rare earths limited

valuation of lyc, page-10

  1. tdl
    389 Posts.
    Hi Jan,

    "Rough calculation:
    Pessimistic: Phase 1 only, $60 basket price,$20 production cost/kg p/e of 10
    Then it's 11,000,000 kg x $(60-20)x10 = $8.8bn value
    Divide by 1.7bn shares = $5.18 once in production!
    Could be doubled either by phase 2 LAMP or by prices holding up."

    P1 only with your calcs (by my calcs) results in 4.4b value or $2.58/sh.
    With P2 results in 5.18/sh.

    Include also corp oh and wa gov royalty...

    Quite conservative assumptions I believe... But, we should consider also:

    Possible phase 3 (LAMP expansion to accommodate DD HREE - I'm guessing 480t extra, separated, resulting in extra .38c/share or additional $3.80 to SP alone). Exploitation of DD is likely as recently mentioned by NC.

    Cheers...
 
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