where's the interest wednesday, page-18

In America:

Dow Industrials +0.26%
Dow Transports -0.2%
SP500 +0.2%
Russell 2000 -0.12%
Nasdaq100 +0.15%

Comment: A narrow range, relatively flat day. I categorise flat as a day where the indices move up or down 0.2%. The Dow 30 moved a bit more than that today – but the other indices were all within the range. Volume continues on the low side. There’s no confidence in this market at this time. That could easily change tomorrow or the day after – but, at this stage, it has to be seen as more bearish than bullish. The Dow 30 is marginally above the 2 May, 2011, but it is not being confirmed by the Transports or the Russell 2000. Being only a marginal break, it must be viewed with some suspicion.

After some good credit numbers were released at 3.00 p.m., the market lurched higher and a significant break looked possible. But at 3.30 p.m. the market turned back down and gave up most of those gains. On the day, I think we can say it was a draw between the bulls and the bears. Return bout tomorrow.

NewHighs/NewLows 157/1. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 99.4% – that remains in the “no sell” zone (above 80%).

Technical Comment on the Dow 30:

The Dow finished at 12878.21. Above the 15-Day MA and well above the 150-Day Moving Average.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 95.2. Overbought
RSI.9 is at 73.4. Overbought
MACD Histogram. Marginally above Zero. Neutral.
MACD. Marginally above Zero. Neutral.
CCI.14: +163.2. Overbought.

Momentum Indicators are once again overbought. That’s not a signal to act – just a cautionary sign.

The chart is within a narrow rising channel. A break one way or the other from that channel should be significant. The chart is marginally above the 2 May 2011 intra-day high of 12876. Marginal isn’t good enough especially the Transports and Russell2000 are lagging.

Short term and medium term – the trends remain up. Don’t fight the trend. (DFTT).

Redbacka