indication of potential value of atp855, page-2

so i would be greatful if someone could audit my thinking and calcs below.

Euroz say:
" As a sense-check, we highlight the value potential BPT clearly see through the implied $0.47/mcf paid for ADE’s 200Bcf vs the $0.20/mcf we assume in-ground."

Checking on that Beach paid $81m for ADE(20c x 405m shares) - and $81m / 200,000,000mcf = 40.5c/mcf.

SO ADE had 10% of Permian 218 ie 10% of Encounter and Holdfast wells.
Each of these wells were vertical wells.
BPT booked a total of 2TCF (1TCF for each well).

Conv wisdom for shale gas seems to be that once lateral wells are drilled and fracced, the flow rate is significantly increased.

In ATP855 BPT and ICN propose to drill a "horizontal pilot" (assumed vertical well then drill a lateral) and frac it.

SO at the very least one could assume they would be able to obtain the same contingent resource from this fracced horizontal well in ATP855, as they did in total in Encounter and Holdfast?

So if they if they paid $81m for ADE's 10% of PEL218, then someone should surely pay at least $162m for ICN's 20% of ATP855, on the assumption that the ATP855 well achieves at least a 2TCF Contingent Resource figure.

that does not take into a/c that BPT supposedly got a bargain acquiring ADE at 20c ps, and that values for shale gas assets in C/B have skyrocketed, and that a horizontal fracced well should achieve far higher flow rates than a vertical fracced well.

so $162m / 469m shares = 35c ie roughly double current SP !

but one thing is for sure - they won't get ICN's holding based on the same metrics they got ADE for !

cheers