gold will trade $3,000 - $5,000 in 2012, page-156

Hi all

I'm a bit of a newbie here and am so confused trying gauge a reaction to a few of the global issues that surround gold and was wondering if anyone had theories on the direction golds price will take if:

1) Greece doesn't get a bailout - therefore creating instability in the market place and that 'should' result in a higher price of gold, no?

2) the instability would drive the euro lower and the USD higher no?
doesn't POG go down if the USD goes up? - hmmm gold going down then?

3) bailout arrives in the nick of time and everyone breathes a sigh of relief - for now - gold goes down as the market becomes more buoyant in pretend paper money and the world thinks it can move forward again.....for now - gold goes down again, no?

Every analyst has an opinion and I am so confused as to the direction of gold in the next 4-8 months.

my personal sentiment is that it will ultimately go up significantly over a longer period of 10-18 months but despite the uncertainty in the world gold is appearing to become bearish in the shorter term even if it seems there is impending doom.... which should drive it up no?

Maybe my awareness of the global effects on gold is shot and I am missing something....

any help would appreciated.

Cheers