Thorburn I dont mind buying prior to any CR (will prob split my investment into 2 or 3 parcels).
What I am most concerned about is A:
I have Year 1 as 270,000 tpa @ 5.1 g/t Avg / 31.1034768 (troy ounce) = 44,271 oz x recovery rate of 95.7% = 42,367oz
Years 2,3,4,5,6 = 333,000 tpa @ 5.1 g/t Avg / 31.1034768 (troy ounce) = 54,109 oz x recovery rate of 95.7% = 51,782
Total Year 1 = 42,367
Total (Yr 2-6) = 258,910
TOTAL = 301,277
*** this does not align with LOM figures, so further dilution in the process must occur. Does anyone know where I am wrong with the figures???***
and B (i posted this on another forum)
Hi Guys,
As you know I have been doing some research on CRC and at the moment it is throwing up more questions than answers. After reviewing past announcements on the project I am satisified that there is significant upside in exploration.
However, when I review the financial side of things I am coming unstuck. I have run the numbers for the November 2010 Announcement (DFS) into my own spreadsheet and come our with an NPV of $42m (as opposed to $47) and a Net operating Margin of 76.6m (as opposed to $80m). This is not my concern as I can account for the differences.
*** please note at this stage I am using the gold price of $1,250 (as per the DFS) so I can compare like for like.***
What I am struggling to justify is that "all numbers are pre-tax and financing costs" (as per announcement).
CRC has mandated Deutsche Bank to provide financing of up to $37m. So even if you just take 7% interest (no principal) that equates to $2,590,000 per annum. If you then use a tax rate of say 15% (rather than the full 30% to account for past expenditure on the property which can be written off against future gains and other accounting tricks to reduce the tax bill). The NPV drops to only $15m.
The other issue is that on page three cash costs per ounce (excluding royalties and contingencies) are $628/oz. Times by 248,900 oz over the LOM = $156,309,200
Yet on page 8 table 6 total operating costs come in at $166m (including contigency). So the company is saying that the $10m different ($166 - $156m) represents both contigencies and royalties??? Even if it was just contigencies this is a factor of only >6% whereas in more recent announcements they say the contingency is 10%???
*** To everyone: I'm just looking for clarification. I AM NOT trying to say the project is bad. As I have mentioned before I am totally open to buying stock once I have resolved these queries ***
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