I'm basing my expectation on a $60 basket price, since NC has stated the international price should be closer to the domestic China price. Lynas will be the market maker. The current China domestic basket is around $45 and there will obviously be some premium to that.
With costs at $15/kg I estimate eps around 25c, however that 25c is going to be in Lynas Malaysia and I'm unclear on how it will be repatriated to Lynas Corp. So what will the LynasCorp earnings be?
Also although the 25cps is tax free in Malaysia, if it is repatriated to OZ, what is the tax status here?
I'm thinking a 2012/13 price target around the May $2.05 SPP price is realistic.
lynas - price target 12 months, page-2
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