killer candle, page-16

G'day Upncoming.
My gist of the situation after glancing through some of the reports (relative newcomer myself and like to concentrate on TA, so some of the long-term holders might help out):

re
"The investor presentation flags that this resource will cost 10-12b to develop!"

The 10-12 Bil you quote is for the railway to be constructed from Botswana to Mozambique as per the feasability study completed. This is believed to be required for Stage 3.

Deposit estimated upwards of 2.6 Bil tonnes.
Initial production is for 1-2 Mtpa next year (Stage 1) increasing to 5 Mtpa in 2-3 years (Stage 2), with eventual 20-30 Mtpa forecast.(Stage 3)

Current rail system can cope with 1-1.5 Mtpa for regional area supply (basically African soil). After that is where the rail gauge increase will be required.

Stage 1 – initially 600,000 tonnes per year of washed coal produced on site and sold at the mine gate to regional industrial customers. Stage 1 capital cost was estimated at $US46 million.

Stage 2 – 2.5 million tonnes per year of washed or raw coal sold to a 600 MW on-site power plant. Stage 2 capital cost was estimated at US$104 million, assuming contract mining. Stage 2 requires investment in a power plant at Sese by a third party.

Stages 3 and 4 – Production of +20 Mtpa of washed coal for export, in conjunction with an expansion of power station coal sales. Stages 3 and 4 represent AFR’s ultimate development goal for Sese, in which the resource is best utilised. Stages 3 and 4 require construction of a heavy gauge railway to a port.

As for the takeover? Who knows.

The reports are pretty user friendly to read through if you can spare an hour. Good luck.

Regards.