shorting fmg, page-63

Kray
with respect to your opinions on global economic trends/themes, anyone can pick apart data to support their arguement/sentiment
I think that i am well enough read to keep up !

As a trader and an open shorter you have a bias towards negative data and short term issues and ofcourse thats fine

The headline i keep hearing is "China Soft Landing"
You talk about sagging chinese domestic demand yet it grew by 16% YoY, some headlines can be misleading and the media itself has a strong negative bias

IMHO there is a much bigger theme in play here that you cant see, a bit like the wood for the trees. China in a bad year grows at 9% of an ever larger base. Sure there will be hiccups along the way but this is a major economic theme and will be for several decades.
Why do you think all 4 major IO companies Globally (including FMG) are ramping up capacity ? Have they all got it wrong ? I guess we will see eh.?
This is not just a China story btw its India and inturn Indonesia and other emerging economies but the biggest ones are on the doorstep of FMG.


One of the challenges for China has been to shift the focus of that massive economic growth from exports to domestic consumption, at 16% Yoy growth i would say they are on the right track to achieving that.

I like your quote its one of my favourites but i suspect that your assumption that the market is being irrational may be misguided wrt FMG. Many would suggest that it is seriously underpriced and the market may be starting to recognise that as the majors dissapoint and FMG forges on with a massive expansion
remember even with lower margins expanded volume will more than compensate